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Ansar Allah, or the Houthis, the faction which has controlled northern Yemen and the capital of Sana’a for over 10 years, has warned that oil prices could see “a dreadful shock” if attacks on its territory continue.
Sana’a International Airport was bombed by the Saudi Royal Air Force yesterday in attempt to prevent a plane carrying AA’s delegation home from their attendance at Ali Khamenei’s funeral in Iran. The Kingdom had previously sent jets to interfere with an Iranian delegation trying to land at the airport on July 3rd, and in response to the second and latest offense, AA launched several missiles at Abha International Airport in Riyadh.
Saudi military spokesmen claimed the missiles were intercepted, but video on social media seemed to indicate that there was an explosion at Abha or at least near it. Additionally, AA announced the implementation of a “no-fly zone” over Saudi Arabia, a likely rhetorical move, but which may demonstrate that this the bubbling up of conflict in southern Arabia is unlikely to end quickly.
Yemeni officials are warning that the next move could be the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. “If the current situation aggravates, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz will be closed in an operational alliance. Oil prices would then skyrocket to $200 a barrel in a dreadful shock,” said Mohammed al-Farah, a member of Ansar Allah’s political bureau.
Even considering US President Donald Trump’s inability to achieve his objectives in the Persian Gulf, he can count himself lucky the de-facto leadership of Yemen chose not to close the Bab, or “Gate of Sorrow” at the mouth of the Red Sea near the Horn of Africa.
Around 30% of container ship traffic passes through the Bab, amounting to some 12% of global trade, and during its previous closure by the Houthis, 7 of the 10 largest shipping companies suspended transit through the Red Sea according to The Guardian.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen have held to a UN-negotiated ceasefire since 2022, and the longstanding Saudi-US enforced blockade of Yemen’s ports of entry was somewhat lifted. Antiwar reports that calls have been growing in Yemen’s provinces for a full removal of the blockade conditions, something which so far hasn’t materialized.
In an interview with Yemen’s Almasirah TV on Tuesday, a domestic military leader referred to as Major General Khaled Ghurab said that the response to Saudi’s airstrikes “reflected the transition to a new phase of confrontation aimed at imposing new deterrence equations,” similar to Iran’s new strategic doctrine of pre-empt and response.
“It sends a clear message that the decision to break the siege has entered the implementation phase, with the Yemeni Armed Forces committed to this course until its objectives are achieved”.
Unfinished business
Though AA is not the “internationally-recognized government” in Yemen, which actual lives in a Riyadh hotel, they have broad popular support and have controlled all functions of government barring representation at the UN since 2015. A Saudi-led intervention to eliminate AA that same year led to what some international law scholars called a genocide, with the blockade coming as one of several deliberate uses of famine and deprivation as tools of war, along with relentless bombing of civilian infrastructure, which together killed at least 377,000 Yemenis, mostly civilians, over a period of 7 years.
The US Executive funded and backed the Saudis the entire time despite multiple attempts in US Congress to end America’s involvement in the war. According to Axios reporter Barak Ravid, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin-Salman asked Trump for clearance to attack Sana’a Airport, for which the President gave assent. The fact that a request was made could suggest that Saudi aims for sustained military action, for which continued diplomatic and military support from Washington will be needed.
Though the Saudis and AA fought ostensibly to a stalemate, both presidents Trump and Joe Biden attacked Yemen on separate occasions over its partial closure of the Bab el-Mandeb from 2023 to 2025. Both not only lost, but had to admit defeat. Almost certainly receiving help in some way from Iran, AA has developed a variety of standoff weapons including drones and long-range missiles with which they have been able to bomb Saudi Aramco oil facilities, the heart of Tel Aviv, and US aircraft carriers transiting the Red Sea.
Their lack of involvement in this most recent episode of conflict between Trump and Iran suggested at the time a doctrine of patience. Shortly before Trump and Iranian negotiators agreed to a ceasefire, on March 28th, AA confirmed it had fired ballistic missiles at Israel.
Only 8 days ago, AA launched an attack on Saudi-backed forces occupying Aden in the south of Yemen in the largest episode of ground combat seen in the country since the ceasefire.
If AA makes a concerted effort to close the Bab el-Mandeb, it would severely complicate the strategy behind Trump’s renewed attempt to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia redirected a substantial portion of its oil exports via its East-West pipeline (Petroline) to the Red Sea terminal of Yanbu, according to reports. This pipeline has a design capacity of 7 million barrels per day, with Riyadh diverting about 4 million barrels daily through this route, or about 20% of overall Gulf export traffic. WaL
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PICTURED ABOVE: Donald Trump and Crown Prince Mohammed bin-Salman deliver remarks at a dinner at the White House on November 18th, 2025. PC: Official White House photo
