Qatar’s LNG Exports Drop 96% Leaving Europe (But Not Italy) Undersupplied for Winter

Andy Corbley

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Given Italy’s favorable geographic position and a big development bet on natural gas as a primary energy source, the country has been able to refill its national gas stockpiles to roughly 80% of capacity, even as Qatar, an exporter for one-fifth of the world’s LNG, has experienced a calamitous drop in capacity.

From 509 LNG cargo exports last year, the country has exported just 18 outside the Gulf region since March 1st, a drop of 96% that the state says has accounted for some $24 billion, or 5 whole months worth of gross national income, in lost revenue.

Though much of the focus has been on barrels of oil and the prices of petroleum products at filling stations, Qatar, whose primary export is natural gas and its liquified storage form (LNG,) has been much more severely affected as gas infrastructure lacks the transport flexibility of crude oil.

Though small amounts of natural gas has been exported to Gulf neighbors like Kuwait and Bahrain, negligible totals have made it out through the Strait of Hormuz.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Europe made a conscious decision to abandon Russian natural gas, previously the largest exporter to the continent, and levered up even more to imports from the Gulf; above all from QatarEnergy, the state-owned energy company. With a little less than 2 months remaining in Europe’s traditional summer campaign of replenishing natural gas stores in time for winter, when demand is substantially higher, this dependence has shown in the quantities of stockpiled energy in many of Europe’s economies.

In Germany, Europe’s largest energy market, stockpiles sit roughly half-full, while France has managed a bit more with 64%, three-percentage points higher than the continental average of 61% which happens to be the lowest at this time of year since 2011. Italy, by contrast, and with its mixture of pipeline fonts and LNG terminals, had by August 19th reached 80% of maximum capacity, equal to 162.3 TWh of electricity.

According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) this is still about 5% lower than what Italy had accumulated by the same point last year. During the winter of 2025-2026, natural gas covered 23% of electricity demand between October and March.

“The transformation in the European energy system in these recent years has rendered the continent much more dependent on LNG,” wrote Stefania De Michele, at Euronews. “The structural reduction of Russian gas via pipelines has increased the dependency of importation of LNG via shipping, while native European production continues to diminish”.

Indeed, US liquified natural gas has played a huge role in Europe’s energy mix since the Ukraine war began, but rather than stepping up having put Qatar on the wrong end of the Hormuz blockade, US exports are heading mainly to Asia, data collected by Reuters shows.

Italy, yet again, has been able to swerve any single dependency, whether Qatari or American, through its diversification strategy. According to data from the Polaris tool from Snam SpA, Italy’s primary natural gas infrastructure operator, 51% of supplies still come from pipelines while 34% come via LNG shipments.

In the 6 months of January to June, pipelines from Algeria, Azerbaijan, and Libya delivered 11.4 billion, 4.9 billion, and 0.2 billion cubic meters respectively. Another 12.8 bcm came from European supplies. These totals are just 2% lower than in the same period last year. LNG imports through key terminals in Ravena, near Venice, and at Piombino accounted for one-third, or 34% of Italy’s gas imports. LNG regassification from these fonts is actually up 5% year-over-year.

Still, estimates from national energy companies believe home gas and electricity prices for the year could increase anywhere from 200 to 2,000 euro, even with Italy’s competitive advantages, highlighting what a substantial strain the US has placed on its allies with the launching of this war. WaL