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Analysis – Taiwan is at Pains to Determine Defense Policy and Independence

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Story at a glance…

  • Many of Taiwan’s key allies likely will not support the island in defending itself against China.

  • Taiwanese officials rebuke US rep. comments that the country would blow up key industries to make the island not worth holding for the Chinese.

  • With presidential elections in 2024, candidates are tackling some of the highest tensions in the island’s history, and a potentially dysfunctional military.

ITALY, May 11th, 2023. The next five years present huge challenges to the government in Taiwan, as they struggle with uncertain allegiances, a potential conflict with mainland China, an uncertain national defense policy, and presidential elections.

Since about the time that Donald Trump took office, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) which holds the presidency of Taiwan has enjoyed broad popular support following political unrest in Hong Kong, increased military aid from the United States, and growing calls for Taiwan to be included in multilateral organizations such as the World Health Organization.

Now, following widely-publicized war games that predicted annihilation for Taiwan in the event of a US-led defense of the island in the face of Chinese invasion, a change in political winds toward the opposition party, ambiguous stances from the island’s close allies, and the similarities between a potential war with China and the current the war in Ukraine, mean the country is facing the choppiest political waters since the Taiwan Straits Crisis in 1958.

On May 4th, speaking from Taiwan to reporters in Australia, Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu said that it is currently unclear which countries might stand beside it in the event of an attack, with the Taipei Times noting that Australia and Japan, two of their closest allies in the region, maintain deep strategic ambiguity.

“A lot of people are debating strategic ambiguity or strategic clarity, but to us, we know our own responsibility,” Wu said. “Taiwan has to defend itself, the people have to defend Taiwan, this country, and we are determined to defend ourselves and we are not asking other countries to fight for Taiwan”.

One really sympathizes with the man and his administration. The population of Taiwan is just 23 million people, while China’s is 1.4 billion. China maintains the world’s second-largest military and is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, along with the largest trading partner of Japan and Australia.

Furthermore, the armed forces of Taiwan suffer from severe staffing problems. More on that later.

Lastly, there may be a sense in the DPP’s ranks that their guarantor, the USA, may not be the ally they need after all.

PICTURED: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), Hsinchu Science Park, Taiwan. PC: Peelden, CC 3.0.

Scorched earth

US Representative Seth Moulton (D – MA) recently said the US should “make it very clear to the Chinese that if you invade Taiwan, we’re going to blow up TSMC,” using the ticker for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest computer chip manufacturer.

Querried on this, Taiwan Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuocheng responded that “it is the military’s obligation to defend Taiwan and we will not tolerate any others blowing up our facilities”.

It’s food for thought for Mr. Chiu. Several US war plans over how a nation 8,000 miles from Taiwan might defend it from another nation just 110 miles away have referred to “scorched earth” tactics that destroy any economic value on the island as a disincentive for China to attempt to take it.

In the previously mentioned series of war games in the case of the US choosing to defend Taiwan from a Chinese invasion conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, several conclusions point to this same idea.

The first is that the limited size of Taiwan’s uniformed soldiery and confined theater of combat mandates that they’d have to prioritize survivability, particularly in geographical areas like mountains, but also cities. The report on the war games predicts massive damage to the infrastructure of the cities in this case.

Touching on a point made earlier, the report included a quote from former intelligence officer John Culver who said “I think you’d get a chilling set of answers” if the executives of all the US’ major treaty allies in the region were asked if they would assist the defense of Taiwan.

In short, not only can Taiwan count their allies out of a fight, but they may have to keep their eyes on the only one they might be able to count on.

From another angle, evidence on the war in Ukraine has now shown that the US has done everything in its power to prevent the war from ending peacefully—by funneling in $114 billion, and counting, in weapons, and torpedoing peace talks in Istanbul. Therefore, Taiwan authorities have clear reasons to doubt the safety and prosperity of their people is at all a consideration among their ardent supporters in D.C.

PICTURED: Former Taiwanese president Ma Yingjeou and Xi Jinping – CC 2.0. 總統府

Unsure of what to do

Considering the words of Foreign Minster Wu, the Taiwanese armed forces have faced, and continue to face, serious staffing problems. On May 8th, the Defense Ministry reported that the number of volunteer enlisted soldiers determined unfit for active duty reached 4,066 last year, a record high.

In an effort to counter this, the government has reintroduced mandatory military service but expects recruits to reach only about 9,000 by the end of 2024. Of the 4,066, 92.4% applied for early release, about half of whom stated they had different career plans.

WaL has reported on the sorry state of the Taiwanese military before, including that front-line positions remain staffed at 60% capacity, and operational staff capacity at 80%, and of the Discord Leaks revealing the deep doubts harbored in the Pentagon over Taiwan’s air and missile defense systems and strategies.

With presidential elections coming up in 2024, Taiwanese will have to choose between the independent-leaning DPP incumbents who created the highest cross-strait tensions in almost 70 years, and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT).

The nationalists tend to hold to a political doctrine known as the “1992 consensus,” which states there is one China and Chinese people, but that Beijing and Taipei disagree on “what China means”.

Recently, KMT leaders, including a former president of Taiwan, have been visiting mainland China, and in general calling for reductions in tensions and more dialogue about the future of Taiwan’s relationship with the mainland, which remains strong today even with recent troubles.

A potential frontrunner for the presidential nomination from the KMT, New Taipei Mayor Hou Youyi, recently said he opposes Beijing’s “one country, two systems” formula like the one in Hong Kong, as well as Taiwanese independence.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has said the “one country, two systems” formula, used in Hong Kong and Macau, could be customized to apply to Taiwan if China were to take control of the nation.

Difficult times lie ahead for Taiwan, and the next administration will need to take a hard look in essentially every direction at what will ensure the island’s prosperity. WaL

 

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Continue exploring this topic — Taiwan — Taiwan’s KMT Party Thinks a Strategy on Cooperation with the Mainland Will Win in 2024 Elections

Continue exploring this topic — Taiwan — What do the Discord Leaks Say About US-China Relations?

Continue exploring this topic — Taiwan — Apathetic Taiwanese Military Unready and Unwilling to Defend Against China

About Post Author

Andy Corbley

Corbley@worldatlarge.news
https://www.worldatlarge.news
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