What Happens Now After the Bank Failures? Fed Between a Rock and a Hard Place

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Whether they admit it or not, the US Federal Reserve has been left juggling priorities of whether to ensure banking sectors and credit markets are solid or to continue fighting inflation, which remains high all over the world, and 6% year-over-year in the US.

Following the collapse of three regional banks, US investors received a higher-than-expected consumer price index report, and stronger-than-expected job reports, indicating that the Fed’s mission to reduce historically high and stubborn inflation would traditionally mandate additional increases in the benchmark national interest rate.

However, the banks’ collapse is taken as a sign that even if interest rates don’t go higher but remain at 4.75%, more overleveraged banks (there are 4,000 in the US) might be caught with their pants down if depositors begin withdrawing at speed.

The European Central Bank plowed ahead with a meeting Thursday the 16th of a 50 basis point rate hike, bringing the Eurozone to 3.5%. The ECB has advanced slower along the path towards the same goal of tackling inflation.

The Euro had its own banking jitters after Credit Suisse, the largest bank in Switzerland, needed liquidity but received none from its lead shareholder. sparking fears of more widely spread bank insolvency following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank last week. On Wednesday it secured a $54 billion bailout from the Swiss National Bank, which eased tension.

Further rate hikes, said ECB President Christine Lagarde, will depend on future economic data.

PICTURED: First Republic Bank, another regional California bank, is under extreme pressure and may look for a buyer.

What comes next?

The end of the banking difficulties is not totally in the review mirror. Thursday morning, shares of First Republic Bank, a regional bank based in San Francisco, were down 30% before the bell, after Glancy Prongay & Murray LLP, a leading securities fraud law firm announced it was launching an investigation into the company.

Bank executives have tried to assure customers and Wall Street that it has sufficient liquidity to support its deposits—$70 billion, mostly through Federally-funded programs go figure.

S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings downgraded First Republic’s debt to “junk” status, citing concerns that the bank could lose deposits. First Republic’s deposits are thought to be at risk of flight because 68% are above the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s insurance $250,000 limit, according to recent data.

“If deposit outflows continue, we expect First Republic would need to rely on its more costly wholesale borrowings. This would encumber its balance sheet and hurt its modest profitability,” S&P analysts Nicholas Wetzel and Rian Pressman wrote Wednesday.

Moving back to the Fed’s potential announcement on interest rates next week, Goldman Sachs quickly predicted there will not be any further rate hikes. Their analysis is that the continually tight access to credit that will follow the banking shock will bring inflation down without the Fed increasing the price of money.

If they’re right, then all that’s left will be whether or not the Fed would potentially announce a pivot—meaning the reduction of interest rates; perhaps in line with those of the ECB. With the Fed forever enslaved to waiting to see lagging economic indicators, the potential that their hikes were too high, and came too fast, may convince some Fed Bank chairmen to support lowering them and waiting to see what happens next.

However, if that happens, fears of the continuation of inflation which has dragged on economic growth will certainly grow. WaL

PICTURED ABOVE: ECB President Christine Lagarde. PC: European Parliament. CC 4.0.

Continue exploring this topic — Federal Reserve — Debt Ceiling Circus: How Much Debt Does the Federal Government Really Have?

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