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Much of the last year of war coverage in Ukraine has centered around the Russian advance on the coal-mining and logistical city of Pokrovsk. Along with being a key lynchpin in the Ukrainian defensive line and supply point for it, it’s one of the largest cities left in the region of Donetsk still controlled by Ukraine.
Early November saw reports of Russian troops in the city proper, while last week, a dense fog favored their approach into the city by obscuring troop movements from drones. TRT News claims the whole eastern city district is under Russian control, while Kyiv Independent reported on November 11th that the defenders are still able to repel the Russians.
Days later it seemed all but inevitable that the city would fall, with Telegram videos surfacing of Russian soldiers riding motorcycles through the streets, and the Ukrainians holding onto a mere 6 mile-wide space to resupply and/or escape through. That space is shared by the city of Mrynohrad to the east of Pokrovsk.
“A lot will depend on what is the state of Ukrainian forces after Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad,” an analyst told the Independent. “I think the crucial question is: Was it worth it to hold on to these towns that are now very difficult to hold and defend?”
While the struggle unfolded, reports came out that Russian forces had now advanced to within 25 miles of Zaporizhzhia, the administrative capital of Zaporizhia, one of the four Ukrainian provinces that the Russian government passed laws claiming to have annexed along with Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson.
While Pokrovsk had a pre-war population of around 60,000 people, Zaporizhia housed 11-times as many—a major regional city that at times has remained undisturbed by the war.
“[Russia] deployed resources more than a month ago to activate their advance on the western flank,” Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy head of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera.
Fighting is now concentrated around the town of Huliaipole in eastern Zaporizhia, where Russian forces have advanced to within 3 miles of the town.
Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University, also told Al Jazeera the town could be lost “fast, possibly without much fighting,” and would be “a rather strong public-relations blow for Ukrainian forces”.
Others have also speculated the capture of Huliaipole would happen fast. It’s surrounded by treeless steppe, which Russia has advanced quickly through with the aid of smokescreen-deploying robots. With winter fast approaching, mechanized movement through the landscape becomes more achievable as muddy fields freeze over. At the moment, the town is surrounded by two-thirds according to geolocation data from DeepState Maps. A frost could see mobility increase for Russian forces if not countered by drones, which have played a huge role in slowing down the advances of both sides.
“The situation has significantly worsened in the Oleksandrivka and Huliaipole directions,” said Ukrainian Supreme Commander Oleksandr Syrskyii, according to TRT.
According to DeepState Map’s data, Russian forces have also taken all of Kupiansk, a town of significance to the north of Pokrovsk, near the large city of Kharkiv. The seizure was something of a breakthrough—a several mile-deep thrust without secured flanks—which was described by critics of the Ukrainian military planning as something that was becoming all too common. WaL
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PICTURED ABOVE: A social media screenshot of Russian forces riding through Pokrovsk. PC: Telegram.
